California Gov. Gavin Newsom, often criticized by Republicans for his state’s high taxes and strict pandemic policies, has emerged as an early frontrunner for Democrats in the 2028 presidential race, according to recent polling. A Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted Sept. 2 shows Newsom leading the Democratic field with 21% support among registered Democrats. But Vice President JD Vance,
expected to be the Republican nominee, is already eyeing opportunities to exploit Newsom’s weak spots in national polling. The survey found Vice President Kamala Harris close behind at 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%. With Newsom at the top of the early field, analysts say it is important for conservatives to begin assessing both his strengths and vulnerabilities ahead of 2028. Although Newsom has maintained a lead in Democratic primary polling for several months, his national approval ratings remain weak. A Sept. 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters found him with a net approval rating of -5, with 38% approving
and 43% disapproving. The survey also highlighted Newsom’s struggles with key constituencies critical to winning swing states. His weakest numbers came from non-college voters, who disapproved of him by a 21-point margin, 48% to 27%. That gap is wider than Vice President Kamala Harris’s 13-point loss among non-college voters in 2024, underscoring a long-standing Democratic concern over eroding support within this demographic in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin, the Daily Torch reported, citing the data. Swing voters could pose a significant challenge for the California governor. A recent survey shows him trailing by 12 points among this group, with 41% disapproving and 29% approving of his performance. Independents and non-affiliated voters narrowly backed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024, 49% to 46%. Presently, a record 43% of Americans identify as independents, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans at 28% each.
Analysts warn that Newsom’s lack of appeal among swing voters could seriously undermine his prospects in 2028 as more Americans move away from the two major parties. Another constituency Newsom is struggling with is men, notably college-educated men, who voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump by a single percentage point in 2024, 49 percent to 48 percent according to National Election Pool data. College-educated men disapprove of Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent. Another hurdle for Newsom is winning over highly active voters — those who participated in all four of theCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom, often criticized by Republicans for his state’s high taxes and strict pandemic policies, has emerged as an early frontrunner for Democrats in the 2028 presidential race, according to recent polling. A Yahoo News/YouGov survey conducted Sept. 2 shows Newsom leading the Democratic field with 21% support among registered Democrats. But Vice President JD Vance,
expected to be the Republican nominee, is already eyeing opportunities to exploit Newsom’s weak spots in national polling. The survey found Vice President Kamala Harris close behind at 19%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10%. With Newsom at the top of the early field, analysts say it is important for conservatives to begin assessing both his strengths and vulnerabilities ahead of 2028. Although Newsom has maintained a lead in Democratic primary polling for several months, his national approval ratings remain weak. A Sept. 9 Cygnal survey of 1,500 likely voters found him with a net approval rating of -5, with 38% approving
and 43% disapproving. The survey also highlighted Newsom’s struggles with key constituencies critical to winning swing states. His weakest numbers came from non-college voters, who disapproved of him by a 21-point margin, 48% to 27%. That gap is wider than Vice President Kamala Harris’s 13-point loss among non-college voters in 2024, underscoring a long-standing Democratic concern over eroding support within this demographic in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin, the Daily Torch reported, citing the data. Swing voters could pose a significant challenge for the California governor. A recent survey shows him trailing by 12 points among this group, with 41% disapproving and 29% approving of his performance. Independents and non-affiliated voters narrowly backed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024, 49% to 46%. Presently, a record 43% of Americans identify as independents, surpassing both Democrats and Republicans at 28% each.
Analysts warn that Newsom’s lack of appeal among swing voters could seriously undermine his prospects in 2028 as more Americans move away from the two major parties. Another constituency Newsom is struggling with is men, notably college-educated men, who voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump by a single percentage point in 2024, 49 percent to 48 percent according to National Election Pool data. College-educated men disapprove of Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent. Another hurdle for Newsom is winning over highly active voters — those who participated in all four of the
