With former President Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early once again, heading to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and contributing to a national total of nearly 19 million early ballots.
The early turnout is setting records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, the Associated Press reported on Monday.
The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will address a mechanical issue that some within the party attribute to losses in the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns typically prefer their supporters to vote early so they can concentrate resources on mobilizing more marginal voters right before Election Day.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative and former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino.
Republicans appear to be responding positively. In Nevada, where Democrats have historically relied on a strong early voting turnout to counter the GOP on Election Day, approximately 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast early ballots as of Tuesday, according to research by the Associated Press.
However, it’s unclear what this means for the election. Early voting data only indicates voters’ party registration, not their actual voting intentions, and the early electorate can fluctuate daily as more people vote, the AP added.
The surge in early voting among Democrats in 2020 was largely a reaction to the pandemic, which is no longer a factor, complicating historical comparisons. Additionally, what might seem like demographic trends in early voting can quickly change once Election Day votes are included.
It is still quite early in the voting process, the AP added in an apparent attempt to damper GOP enthusiasm. Wisconsin, the last of the seven swing states, began its early voting on Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who have cast ballots so far this year represent only about 11% of the total ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election.
Parties can build leads in early voting, but those leads can disappear on Election Day if all their supporters have already voted while the opposing side has not yet cast their ballots, a phenomenon that typically favored Republicans in the past.
James Blair, the political director for Trump’s campaign, stated that their data indicates a higher number of low-propensity voters casting ballots early compared to those who might typically support Vice President Kamala Harris, the AP reported. “The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.
Democrats in the battleground of Pennsylvania have already sent in about 350,000 more mail ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. “But the GOP is making up ground by voting early in-person in most competitive states,” the AP added.
Continuing an October trend, Trump has expanded his lead over Harris in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll.
The organization recently shared its findings with Secrets, indicating that Trump now holds a 3-point lead at 50% to Harris’s 47%. Previously, he led by a narrower margin of 49% to 47%.
“In the survey, Trump leads Harris among Hispanic voters, 49%-45%, and he is winning 32% of the black vote,” the Washington Examiner reported, citing the data.
Rasmussen recently transitioned to producing a daily presidential election tracking poll and expanded its survey sample on Monday to include 3,384 likely voters, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.
The polling model continues to reflect the composition used in the 2020 election, featuring 35% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 32% independents, the outlet added.
